The Fermi paradox for start ups, for when you come up with a brilliant startup idea and are wondering how no one has built it yet.
Why doesn’t this business/product exist yet?
|No one has thought of the idea before||Creativity||Nuclear fission in 1900||~0% (Only happens once per idea!)|
|People have thought of the idea, but no one with the resources/ambition/skills required to attempt it||Initiative||Nuclear fission in 1936||5%|
|People have attempted it but no one has succeeded in building a working solution||Technology||Heavier-than-air flight in 1890||5%|
|People have succeeded in building a solution, but no one wants it||Market - Existence||Segway in 2001||10%|
|People have built a solution that customers will pay for but there is no effective distribution channel||Distribution||Ride sharing in 2000||10%|
|People have built a profitable solution, the market where it works is just small||Market - Scale||Segway in 2010||20%|
|It does exist. You just aren’t paying attention||Your own ignorance||Every idea you haven’t heard of||50%|
Successful startups typically come out of “Initiative” stage, by bringing hustle and cash to new ideas, or the “Distribution” stage, by bringing hustle and cash to new distribution channels.